Intuition? Fear? Knowledge? Why Zelensky procrastinates on accepting Trump’s rare-earths initiative
(image courtesy: ChatGPT)
Even though Zelensky is trapped by his psychological dependence on power, something more than just addiction makes him refuse peace in exchange of Ukrainian natural resources. May we assume that he has some insider information that the Trump-Putin peace deal has already been settled under other conditions than pure economy? Maybe he knows that Trump uses different levers of influence to persuade Putin to stop the war? Hence, Zelensky is trying to make the topic of rare-earth metals secondary and procrastinating to provide what Americans require. What can enable Zelensky to do so? What secret agreements between Trump and Putin may Ukrainian President be aware of? Let’s consider all possible variants, even the most far-fetched ones count
ChatGPT:
Your reasoning opens up an interesting speculative space. If we assume Zelensky is resisting a peace deal that trades Ukrainian natural resources for American security guarantees, it suggests he believes either:
1. The war can still be won or prolonged in a way that benefits his position — meaning he expects continued Western military support or believes Russia is weaker than it appears.
2. He knows of a larger geopolitical agreement that renders the rare-earth metals issue secondary — meaning he believes U.S. interests in Ukraine extend beyond resource control and into strategic, ideological, or political realms.
If there is indeed a Trump-Putin backchannel agreement, what might it involve? Here are several possible angles:
- Trump Plans to End the War Through Concessions to Russia
- • If Trump privately signaled that he would lift sanctions, pull U.S. military aid, or even recognize Russian control over occupied territories, Putin might agree to stop active combat.
- • This would render Ukraine’s rare-earth metal supply less relevant since U.S. control over Ukraine would weaken, and Zelensky would be trying to delay such an outcome.
2. Trump is Offering Putin a New Security Order in Europe
• Trump has long criticized NATO. If he has quietly assured Putin that NATO expansion will halt or even reverse (e.g., reducing U.S. presence in Eastern Europe), this could be a bargaining chip.
• Zelensky might resist because his power depends on maintaining NATO military support and a war narrative.
3. Trump is Pressuring China Instead of Russia
• If Trump has a plan to isolate China rather than Russia, he may be negotiating with Putin to shift Russia away from Beijing.
• A U.S.-Russia rapprochement would make Ukraine’s strategic importance diminish, as Washington would no longer need Kyiv as a buffer state.
• Zelensky, realizing that Ukraine would be abandoned in such a scenario, could be stalling.
4. A Personal Deal Between Trump and Putin
• Trump may have a personal incentive to help Putin in exchange for financial or political benefits after leaving office.
• This could mean he’s promising to end U.S. intervention in Ukraine, giving Putin a free hand.
5. Zelensky is Trying to Secure His Own Post-War Position
• If Zelensky knows a Trump-Putin deal will end the war under terms unfavorable to him (e.g., he’s removed from power or forced into exile), he might be playing for time.
• His leverage could come from intelligence he has gathered on U.S. interests in Ukraine — such as military research, biolabs, or corruption networks that he could use to blackmail Washington.
6. Ukraine Has Strategic Leverage Beyond Rare-Earth Metals
• Ukraine may hold undisclosed intelligence on U.S. operations, weapons tech, or covert military installations that Zelensky can use as leverage.
• If Trump and Putin agreed on peace without Ukrainian input, Zelensky might be using classified knowledge as a deterrent.
7. Zelensky Hopes to Survive by Aligning With Another Power Bloc
• If he sees Trump as unreliable, he may be stalling while negotiating a future backed by the EU, UK, or even China.
• If a post-Trump America withdraws from Ukraine, Zelensky may be betting on a different patron to secure his political survival.
8. Zelensky Fears Internal Overthrow
• If he knows that peace would result in his ouster (by either Ukrainian elites, the military, or foreign actors), he may be resisting as a survival instinct.
• A Trump-Putin deal that disregards Ukrainian sovereignty could spark an internal coup, which Zelensky is trying to prevent.
Final Thought
If Zelensky is resisting despite immense U.S. pressure, it suggests he holds some kind of trump card — be it intelligence, political leverage, or secret guarantees from another player. The key question is whether the rare-earth metals argument is truly decisive or merely a public cover for deeper geopolitical maneuvering.
